Extremely foolish

One month ago I posted this …

“This prediction of his political demise will look extremely foolish and my confidence will again disintegrate if he does survive or even gets a moderate share of the vote while losing”


I’m posting this the morning Trump won.






7 responses to “Extremely foolish

  1. Well, I did predict a clear Trump victory on this blog back in October. Not that Trump is an ideal candidate from my point of view, either. I’m deeply sceptical of his commitment to the Liberty of the individual, and suspect an authoritarian streak in him which will emerge whenever it is expedient to do so. This would make him “Hillary-lite”, so to speak.

    For the statistically-minded, I’ve been following Nate Silver’s website FiveThirtyEight, which has been tracking polling right through the U.S. presidential primaries and election campaign. While not really concealing their own bias towards Hillary, it appears they succumbed to the MSM journalists’ disease of wishing their own reality into existence. Until the actual reality made that impossible. It’s instructive to scroll through their election night blog (long, but worth it) and witness how slowly the reality dawned on these supposedly objective pundits. A very powerful Morton’s Demon, wouldn’t you say?

    I’m still waiting for them to publish an article entitled, How Did We Get It So Wrong?. Instead, they are attempting to re-write history: their latest article is called Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else. They appear to be forgetting that their readers can actually read, and remember. Quod scripsi, scripsi

    Finally, this quite brilliant rant (albeit with a bad language warning) from a progressive British chap who makes the perfectly valid point that if you eschew reasoned debate, and simply hurl insults at those with whom you disagree, as I believe both candidates did in this election, you aren’t going to change anyone’s mind, and will end up with a society even more polarised than before:


  2. Being wrong twice that much in one year is very disconcerting. Even if it was a mistake shared by many others.
    Does not help that both times my brother called it right, or at least entertained the serious possibility of Brexit-Trump.
    He predicted the 2007 crash as well. Although he predicted that from the second half of 2005 onwards…

    Yes I saw the video rant.
    would it have applied to the other side if Trump had lost?
    Perhaps he made two versions.
    One comment about it was
    ‘another angry white man with a simple solution.’

    I await with interest the faction fight between the close Trump family/friends circle, the establishment GOP like Ryan, the tea-party wing and main funder Bob Mercer. (Bannon’s paymaster)
    Lots of incommensurate agendas! (grin)


  3. No it certainly would not have applied, as mainstream newspapers and magazines endorsed Hillary over Trump in the ratio of something like 500 to 1. Trump won in spite of a concerted media campaign, which spent the past year (actually, the past several decades) acting in exactly the way “Jonathon Pie” (aka Tom Walker) describes in his rant. And IMHO he also gets exactly right the reasons Trump won. The voters knew who Trump was. They didn’t vote for him so much as they voted against a state system, a self-absorbed media class and a political machine they felt had abandoned them.


  4. Check your blogroll; it’s an echo chamber. Easy to miss Brexit/Trump and probably other surprises yet to come.


  5. Fair comment.
    Although that is not an exhaustive list of websites I visit.

    I did not miss Brexit/Trump so much as suffer from comfirmation bias. In common with half or more of the population I thought Brexit too damaging and Trump a joke and expected that to negate the attractions for a greater majority than has proved to be the case.

    I see no prospect of a political resolution amongst the powers in play. Efficient storage of electrical power would be a game-changer though.


  6. izen wrote in response to Michael 2:

    “In common with half or more of the population I thought Brexit too damaging and Trump a joke”

    I still think both thoughts.

    “Efficient storage of electrical power would be a game-changer though.”

    That’s putting it mildly. It would be HUGE, perhaps the single greatest achievement *ever* right up there with evolved human language. Thomas Malthus, been nice to know ya!


  7. Nice stereoscopic anaglyph picture above. I’ll look at it later but I presume carbon nanotubes.


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